Future trends and scenario planning

The core ideea of “Mr. Nobody” (2009) movie, is that each decision taken has a series of consequences. As long as we don’t take any, everything is possible.
All futures are contemporary futures, in the same way that all predictions is based upon past experience.

Future trends picture

Vision became a living thing, only when most people belive they can shape their future. Yes, people need to understand the oportunities and threats that live ahead, but they can also consider the direction in wich they would like to travel.

Thinking about the longer term future is fundamental if we, as individuals or organisation, are to take full advantage of the myriad opportunities that lie ahead. Unless we want to end up standing  on the wrong side of history, it is essential for all of us, to develop an awarness of emerging risk, and try to see tomorrow’s problem today.

To deal with a future is a captivant subject but basically the step is to create a set of afternative future that cover a number of possibilities. This technique – called scenario planning or scenario thinking originated as a form of war gaming, or battle planning, in military circles, and was picked up by, among others, oil company “Royal Dutch Shell” as a way of dealing with ambiguity and uncertainty. In Shell scenarios corectly anticipated the  1973 oril crisis.

 A trend is an unfolding event or disposition that we trace back to its initiation, so trends tell us next to nothing about the direction or velocity of future events.

Trend analysis is not foolproof because the world is not binary -it is symetric, and influences interact with each other in complex and surprising ways, leading to change. It’s rare for a new ideea to extinguish an old one.

Change can happen rapidly, but in most instances it takes a decades often generation, for something new to cause something else to become extinct.

Many prediction about future go so horrible wrong

New York Times 1898The Times in 1894 suggest: – every street in London would eventually be burried under nine feet of horse manure. Why?

London was rapidly expanding, and so was the amount of horse-drawn transport. Londoners would, it seemed at the time, soon be up horse-manure creek without a paddle. What the author of this prediction didn’t forsee, of course, was that at exactly this time engineer Karl Bezn was developing the horseless carrige in Germany, and the new invention would change everything.

Karl Benz:  global demand for automobiles wold not suprass one milion.

1885 - Benz Patent Motorwagen

1885 – Benz Patent Motorwagen

Bezn made exactly the same mistake of extrapolating from the present. He preddicted that the global demand for automobiles wold not suprass one milion. Why?

Because of a lack of chauffeurs!
The automobile had been invented, but the ideea of driving by onself had not. Thus seemed inevitable that world would eventually run out of chauffeurs, meaning that the manufacture of the automobile would came to the end of road.

Ocasionally an ideea or event occurs is so sygnificant that history is divided into ‘before’ and ‘after’. Examples, arguably, include the development of the steam engine, the automobile, the microprocessor, the mobile phones, and the internet;
the collapse of the Berlin Wall, 9/11, and the rise of Google, Facebook and Amazon respectively.

Key trends in demographics, technology, energy, the economy, the environment, food and water suppliers, and geopolitics, are already approached subjects on the following websites.

These are the major websites that presents worldview:

In final remember that, not the most powerful being alive, nor the most intelligent, but the one who adapts the  easiest to changes.


2 thoughts on “Future trends and scenario planning

  1. Pingback: Who’s Planning your Future? | Strategic Workforce Planning

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